Winning the national championship in women’s college basketball is no easy task. A team needs talented players, a smart coach and, often, a bit of luck.
But measuring talent, evaluating coaches and predicting when that luck might come through can be difficult. It’s a lot easier to lean on the data.
So, to predict what team might win the national title this season, let’s dive into the numbers.
Every champion since 2010 has ranked no worse than fourth in Her Hoop Stats Rating, which is what a team’s expected scoring margin per 100 possessions would be against an average team. For example, Vanderbilt is seventh in HHS Rating with a mark of 40.7 this season.
Additionally, among those 15 champions, all but four have ranked in the top 30 in rebounds per game in the year they won the title. And all but two ranked in the top 20 of opponent effective field goal percentage ― a sign they were really good at defending.
Gary Blair’s 2011 Texas A&M team was the only real outlier when considering these three stats, ranking 104th nationally in rebounding and 93rd in EFG defense. Muffet McGraw’s 2018 Notre Dame had poor EFG defense too, ranking 163rd. South Carolina’s 2017 squad and UConn’s champions in 2016 and 2025 weren’t all that great rebounding.
But often, the numbers don’t lie. Efficiency, rebounding and defense typically wins championships in women’s college basketball.
With those metrics in mind, let’s rank the teams who have the potential to win it all in 2026. And a special thanks to Her Hoop Stats for the data.
Michigan, Vanderbilt, Iowa, Texas and Duke
While the eye test tells us these five teams are contenders, the numbers do not.
Again, let’s remember what we’re looking for when trying to identify the champion: Top four in HHS Rating, top 30 in rebounding and top 20 in EFG defense.
Michigan is sixth in HHS Rating, 42nd in rebounding and 209th in EFG defense. Iowa is 10th in HHS Rating, 90th in rebounding and 244th in EFG defense. And Vanderbilt, despite having a Player of the Year candidate in Mikayla Blakes and a Coach of the Year candidate in Shea Ralph, are seventh in HHS Rating, 212th in rebounding and 273rd in EFG defense.
With apologies to the Wolverines, Hawkeyes and Commodores, the rebounding and defense aren’t good enough this season.
The same is almost true for the Texas Longhorns. While they do meet the mark of being in the top four of HHS Rating, they’re 91st in rebounding and 57th in EFG defense.
And while Duke has one of the best defenses in the country — with an EFG defense that ranks 17th nationally — they’re 43rd in rebounding and ninth in HHS Rating.
Oklahoma, TCU and LSU
These three teams are outside of the top four in HHS Rating — LSU is fifth, TCU eighth and Oklahoma 13th — but they meet the marks in the other two areas.
LSU is the most impressive, as Kim Mulkey’s squad is second nationally in rebounding with 48.9 boards per game and sixth in EFG defense, allowing their opponents to shoot just a 39.8% clip in that area.
TCU ranks first nationally in EFG defense with a 37.8% mark and is 27th in rebounding at 41.3 boards per game. Oklahoma is third in rebounding with 48.7 rebounds per game and also owns the eighth-best EFG defense at 40.1%.
UConn and UCLA
All season long, these teams have been the best teams in the country. And indeed, the Huskies and Bruins are first and second in HHS Rating.
However, just like last season, UConn’s rebounding numbers aren’t all that great. The Huskies are 183rd nationally in rebounds per game with 36.7.
For the Bruins, their rebounding numbers are great, ranking eighth with 43 boards per game. But UCLA’s EFG defense isn’t quite where they would want it to be to line up historically with past champions, as it ranks 26th with a mark of 41.2%.
South Carolina
Dawn Staley’s Gamecocks are the only team this season that meet all three of the criteria. They are third in HHS Rating, 12th in rebounding with 42.6 boards per game, and third in EFG defense at 38.6%.
South Carolina has the offense, defense, rebounding and efficiency to be national champions, which would be the fourth title for Staley.
But can the Gamecocks beat a UConn team armed with Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd? Can they get past a UCLA team that features 6-foot-7 Lauren Betts and a host of talented guards and 3-point shooters?
Well, that’s why they play the games. We might find out at the Final Four in Phoenix, Arizona.