The Fiesta Bowl is the College Football Playoff semifinal that features two teams that have pulled off the biggest upsets of the postseason.
No. 10 seed Miami first traveled to No. 3 Texas A&M and used an outstanding defense to knock off the Aggies. The Hurricanes followed that with an even bigger surprise by knocking off No. 2 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl.
No. 6 seed Mississippi opened up its run with an easy defeat of Tulane before getting some revenge against No. 3 Georgia with a dramatic defeat in the Sugar Bowl. All of this run is being done with uncertainty about its coaching staff after Lane Kiffin departed to LSU.
The matchup in the semifinals guarantees one of the these two surprise teams will be moving on to the national title game on Jan. 19. Which one keeps its run going? Our experts make their picks.
Miami vs. Mississippi predictions for CFP semifinals at Fiesta Bowl
Matt Hayes
The Miami line of scrimmage takes over (on both sides of the ball) in the second half, and the offense grinds out a late, game-winning drive to secure a trip home for the national championship game. The Ole Miss run defense, which has struggled at times this season, will be exposed by Miami’s physical offensive line. Miami 31, Mississippi 27.
Jordan Mendoza
It’s been really impressive watching Miami’s defense keep offenses from finding any rhythm this postseason. The Rebels will give the Hurricanes another stiff test as Ole Miss has been moving the ball exceptionally this postseason. If one has to give, it will be Ole Miss. The Rebels aren’t able to crack the Miami puzzle and Carson Beck leads a late fourth-quarter score to get the Hurricanes back in the national championship game. Miami 27, Mississippi 23.
Paul Myerberg
Ole Miss should be able to repackage a chunk of its game plan against Georgia to combat Miami’s physical defensive line and edge rushers. Whether the Rebels can loosen things up on the ground will be a huge factor. Miami has to play error-free football on offense and rival the Rebels’ explosiveness. Mississippi 31, Miami 27.
Erick Smith
The matchup of the Miami defense – especially its front – and the Mississippi offense will be one of the best in the playoff. Both groups should have their moments. Which brings us to where the game will be won. Can Carson Beck avoid critical mistakes against a Rebels unit that has been up and down? It shapes up to be a tight, low-scoring affair and the advantage of Mississippi having kicker Lucas Carneiro will be decisive. Mississippi 21, Miami 19.
Eddie Timanus
Having already dispatched Texas A&M and Ohio State, Miami won’t lack confidence entering a matchup with Mississippi. But the Rebels have shown incredible resolve amid all the chaos with the coaching staff with Trinidad Chambliss leading the way on offense. They won’t let the ride end here and will head to Florida one win away from a first national title. Mississippi 34, Miami 27.
Blake Toppmeyer
All the intangibles point to Miami having an advantage. Ole Miss is down a couple of assistants who are busy with their new duties at LSU. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. is juggling multiple jobs.
And yet we’ve seen the Rebels overcome hurdles and distraction for months now. Miami’s defense is incredibly disruptive. Expect it to put pressure on the Ole Miss offensive line, but I’m beyond doubting Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. Miami hasn’t faced an offense like the Ole Miss attack. Chambliss’ magic act pushed Ole Miss past Georgia, and I think he can do it one more time in the Fiesta Bowl. Mississippi 27, Miami 24.