For four games, the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners have been exchanging gut punches, leading to one final test for a berth in the American League Championship Series.
Their AL Division Series is knotted 2-2 entering the decisive Game 5 on Oct. 10 at Seattle’s T-Mobile Park, and the winner-take-all match seems as evenly matched as the series at large, in which the Tigers have outscored the Mariners 18-16.
Ostensibly, the Tigers have the edge thanks to Tarik Skubal, who is expected to win his second consecutive AL Cy Young Award. Yet the Mariners have bested him twice already this season, winning Game 2 after waiting him out and taking a late lead.
What happens in Game 5? Here are five things to watch:
Tarik Skubal: How deep can he get?
Mariners manager Dan Wilson knows it’s a conundrum: You want to drive up Skubal’s pitch count, but also be aggressive before falling down in the count and enabling the left-hander to punch you out with the game’s most devastating fastball-changeup combo.
“It is a balance, but these guys have seen him now three times and have a pretty good idea of what to expect,” says Wilson on the eve of Game 5.
Skubal struck out nine in seven innings of Game 2, leaving with a 2-0 deficit before the Tigers rallied to tie, only for Julio Rodriguez to notch the go-ahead hit in the bottom of the eighth.
This will be his third high-intensity outing in 11 days, throwing 107 pitches to win Game 1 of their wild card series at Cleveland, followed by his 97-pitch outing in ALDS Game 2. Seattle beat him twice this past year, in Seattle in Skubal’s second start of the year and again July 11 in Detroit, knocking him from the game after five innings and 87 pitches.
None of that past is necessarily prologue, yet the win-or-go-home stakes and Skubal’s recent workload don’t strongly suggest he’ll still be around in the eighth inning. Even if Detroit badly needs him to be.
Tigers bullpen: How tall is the trust tree?
Tigers manager A.J. Hinch would strongly prefer rolling out Skubal and not budging. Alas, that probably won’t be an option, and Hinch may have to stray from his comfort zone.
He has leaned heavily on Kyle Finnegan and Will Vest in leverage spots, calling on Finnegan to escape a jam in the fourth inning of do-or-die Game 4, then riding him for two innings. Detroit scoring six runs in the final three innings was the only thing that prevented Hinch from using Vest for two innings, rather than one, to seal the must win.
What’s more, Game 1 starter Troy Melton is probably not available after three clutch relief innings in Game 4. Lefties Tyler Holton and Brant Hurter have been hit-or-miss. Righty Rafael Montero probably won’t see action after a bad Game 1 outing.
Ideally? Skubal for six and Tommy Kahnle, Finnegan and Vest for one inning each, and a raucous flight to Toronto for the ALCS. But scripts look a lot better on paper than they do in the arena.
Big Game Dumper?
Sure, Cal Raleigh got a taste of the playoffs along with the rest of the Mariners in 2022, when they won a wild card series at Toronto before an ALDS sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros.
But this is his first time around as 60-homer, AL MVP-favorite, Home Run Derby champion Big Dumper. And goodness, the results have been excellent.
Raleigh’s banged out seven hits in 16 at-bats, including a home run to his biggest fan, and driven in four runs. Simply, the man looks as locked in now as he did in his historic regular season. That’s helped the first four of Randy Arozarena, Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez and Jorge Polanco provide timely damage all series.
Sure, there’s no home run record to chase, not even an ALDS MVP trophy to pursue. But it’s instructive to remember Raleigh is very dangerous.
Bottom’s up?
In Games 3 and 4, each team got home runs from their No. 9 hitters – Seattle’s J.P. Crawford and Detroit’s Javier Baez. While the game certainly may be decided by the marquee players like Raleigh, Rodriguez or Riley Greene, the nether reaches of the lineup may decide this.
This is where Skubal’s presence looms large: He’ll likely force DH Dominic Canzone to the bench, where his .300 average and .840 OPS will be replaced by Mitch Garver. Outfielder Victor Robles has just 1 hit in 10 at bats, and though he’s drawn three walks has not been able to steal a base.
Meanwhile, Tigers Dillon Dingler, Parker Meadows and Colt Keith are a combined 4-for-36 with one extra-base hit. Yet they’re not permanent fixtures; keep an eye on Jahmai Jones in the late innings against Mariners lefty reliever Gabe Speier, a huge spot in which Jones came through in Game 4.
A bad Muny rising
One thing you can probably book in Game 5: Andres Muñoz standing on the mound in the bottom of the ninth. The baddest reliever on either side was stretched thin in the first three games, pitching in all of them and racking up a spotless two-inning appearance in their 11-inning Game 1 loss.
Doubt it. His slider is one of the finest wipeout pitches in the game and he converted 38 of 45 save chances this year. If Muñoz’s tank is at least half full, he could be the difference maker in what should be a close and tight game late.