Dabo Swinney dared Clemson to kick him to the curb. That won’t happen, but we can boot Clemson from playoff projections.
Notre Dame has losses to Miami and Texas A&M. So, Irish out, and Hurricanes and Aggies in.
Could we have the first 9-3 playoff qualifier? Texas might fit the bill.
Dabo Swinney begged the media to say that Clemson “sucked” after its season-opening loss to LSU. Two weeks later, he dared the university to fire him.
So, how’s Dabo’s prediction of a 16-0 Clemson season coming along? Not great!
Clemson isn’t going to fire Swinney. He knows this. He’s too accomplished, and he’s way too expensive to boot. But, I’m booting Clemson (and a few other preseason front-runners) from my College Football Playoff predictions.
Here’s my latest projection of what I think the bracket will look like come selection Sunday, Dec. 7. Subject to change, of course. As a reminder, teams do not need to be a conference champion to receive a first-round bye, after a change to straight seeding.
1. Ohio State
Most of the attention for Ohio State’s season opener against Texas featured on the Longhorns’ five-star quarterback with the famous last name. But, Ohio State unveiled a five-star of its own, and Julian Sayin is playing much better than Texas’ Arch Manning. The run game is gaining steam, and the defense is nails. A few tricky games remain on Ohio State’s schedule, starting with a Sept. 27 trip to Washington.
2. Miami
Call Carson Beck Coca-Cola, because he’s a blue-chipper who’s paying out sweet, sweet dividends after Miami’s offseason investment in the transfer from Georgia. You could say Beck has regained his 2023 form, when he was one of the nation’s best quarterbacks, but he’s actually been even better than that. It helps having receivers as good as Miami’s. A durable Hurricanes defense gives Miami the balance it lacked last season.
3. Georgia
Georgia is the only team that’s beaten Tennessee at Neyland Stadium since the start of the 2022 season. The Bulldogs needed overtime to pull it off last weekend, rallying past an early 14-point deficit. Kirby Smart’s team remains resilient. Gunner Stockton is slinging it well, and Georgia has better wide receivers than last season. The less said, the better, about how Georgia’s defense looked against Tennessee. That’s a work in progress.
4. Penn State
Here I am yucking Penn State’s yum, but not even Kentucky could have drawn up a non-conference schedule more accommodating than Penn State’s pathetic assembly of cupcakes. The Nittany Lions won’t face a real test until a Sept. 27 game against Oregon. In the meantime, Penn State is playing stingy defense, but where’s this quarterback I keep hearing could be a first-round NFL draft pick? Drew Allar needs to step it up when the real competition arrives.
5. Oregon
The Big Ten schedule breaks quite nicely for the Ducks. They’ll play at Penn State, but they avoid Ohio State, Illinois and Michigan. It’s a recipe designed for 11-plus wins, especially considering how well Dante Moore is playing as Dillon Gabriel’s heir. Coach Dan Lanning once ran Smart’s defense at Georgia, but his Oregon teams are synonymous with good quarterback play.
6. LSU
7. Oklahoma
It’s difficult to locate a team playing more balanced ball than Oklahoma. This is the type of menacing defense Oklahoma must have expected when it hired Brent Venables. The Sooners have allowed just 19 points through three games, and they haven’t even forced a turnover yet. This is pure stinginess. Transfer quarterback John Mateer is playing like a guy who’s planning on being in New York City for the Heisman Trophy ceremony.
8. Florida State
Once we took a breath and stopped firing arrows at Alabama for getting whipped at Florida State, we realized that maybe the Seminoles are pretty darn good. Coach Mike Norvell lives and dies with the transfer portal, and this looks like one of those years when he hit more than he missed. To borrow a phrase that was supposed to apply to Alabama, the Seminoles are playing with a “hard edge.”
9. Texas Tech
No wonder so many other schools tried to entice Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton to transfer. He’s a baller, tied for the nation’s lead in touchdown passes. Texas Tech assembled the best roster a billionaire booster’s money could buy. The Big 12 championship race remains more unpredictable than any conference, but Texas Tech could plant its flag at the head of the competition by beating Utah this week.
10. Texas
11. Texas A&M
Up is down and down is up when the Aggies’ defense is struggling, but their offense is firing on all cylinders. It’s also a twist to see Texas A&M pull out a difficult road game like it did at Notre Dame. Receivers Mario Craver and KC Concepcion have been great gets out of the transfer portal, helping quarterback Marcel Reed to elevate his game. The win against the Irish will be a long-term résumé booster.
12. Tulane
South Florida earned a lot of fanfare for its upset of Florida at The Swamp, but American Conference peer Tulane owns not one but two wins against Power Four opponents. The Green Wave will try for a third against Mississippi, but that game amounts to a free swing. A loss wouldn’t hamstring Tulane’s playoff pursuit. Tulane and South Florida won’t meet in the regular season. A potential conference championship clash between those teams could decide the Group of Five bid.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.