Where are the sleeper teams hiding out? Last year, they were hiding in the Big Ten and the Big 12. That’s where they’re hiding this year, too.
Texas, Ohio State, Penn State are deserving front-runners but brace for drama elsewhere in College Football Playoff chase.
Here’s a sleeper team to watch for CFP bracket: Nebraska. Yes, seriously.
Where are the sleeper teams hiding out? Last year, they were hiding in the Big Ten and the Big 12. Indiana and Arizona State sprinted out of the outhouse and into the College Football Playoff. Boise State joined them to provide three playoff teams that weren’t ranked in the preseason.
Oklahoma, unranked in the US LBM Coaches Poll, is a popular sleeper pick after the Sooners rebooted behind transfer quarterback John Mateer, but I see a schedule full of landmines between Oklahoma and the playoff.
A popular Cinderella, No. 12 Illinois, boasts a proven lineup, but I question whether the Illini will repeat last year’s tightrope walk that produced a 5-1 record games decided by one possession.
The topsy-turvy Big 12 offers fertile ground for a sleeper to emerge, but which one? So many options.
My initial playoff projections include a pair of unranked teams, and I’m following last year’s model by looking to the Big Ten and Big 12 for those sleepers. Otherwise, my playoff projections include plenty of chalk.
This is a projection of what I think the bracket will look like come selection Sunday on Dec. 7. Subject to change, of course.
As a reminder, teams do not need to be a conference champion to receive a first-round bye, after a change to straight seeding.
1. Ohio State
Texas quarterback Arch Manning will make a much-anticipated start Saturday at “The Horseshoe.” And the nation’s best player will be there, too. I’m referring to Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who’s a reminder that the Buckeyes didn’t lose all of their top talent from their national championship team. Much was lost. Much returned, too. Ohio State will face two elite teams, but those games against Texas and Penn State are at home.
2. Texas
Speaking of teams that lost a lot, but not nearly all, of their elite talent, that brings us to Texas. The Longhorns have All-America caliber talent at every level of their defense, and Manning will prove worthy of his surname. He’ll be blessed to operate behind a sturdy offensive line and distribute to a talented cast of skill position players. The downside for Texas? None of its toughest games (Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida) are at home.
3. Penn State
It’s difficult to imagine Penn State missing the playoff. This proven roster, paired with this schedule, are tailor-made for a playoff journey. Even if the Nittany Lions don’t win the Big Ten, what’s the playoff committee to do with a team that only loses to Ohio State? Award them a bye. Penn State arms itself with the nation’s best backfield, a quarterback who tempts NFL scouts in Drew Allar, an improved wide receiving corps and a solid defense.
4. Clemson
Goodness, gracious, Dabo Swinney signed a transfer. More than one, in fact! Clemson’s transfers add polish to the depth chart, but this roster remains built the Swinney way: signed as high school recruits, then developed. Clemson took some licks last season as a young squad, but this team is grown up. The Tigers have the nation’s best defensive line and an elite quarterback in Cade Klubnik. They’re the deserving ACC front-runner.
5. Notre Dame
Notre Dame should be favored in every game. It’s an interesting docket in which the Irish will play exclusively Power Four opponents plus Boise State, and yet the schedule avoids any top-shelf teams. The most difficult game might be the first, Sunday at Miami. Running back Jeremiyah Love is back to lead an offense that could improve after the addition of transfer wide receiver Malachi Fields and the transition to quarterback CJ Carr.
6. Georgia
Kirby Smart is the most proven commodity in college football. His Bulldogs have made three of the last four playoffs. The shift to quarterback Gunner Stockton casts a degree of uncertainty, but he’s not some project player. He’s a former blue-chip recruit who’s spent years as a Georgia understudy. In a reverse from last year, four of Georgia’s toughest games (Texas, Alabama, Florida, Mississippi) will either be played at home or on a neutral field.
7. Alabama
Alabama’s situation mimics that of Georgia. It will transition to a quarterback, Ty Simpson, who’s still unproven after years as a backup, but he was a blue-chip recruit. Alabama’s senior-laden defense ought to rank as one of the nation’s best, and Miami transfer Isaiah Horton improved a wide receiving group led by Ryan Williams. The best news for Alabama? Swing games against LSU, Tennessee and Oklahoma are at home.
8. LSU
LSU needed to upgrade its personnel, especially on defense, after another season in which the performance didn’t meet expectations. It bought some solutions. Nobody plundered the portal better than LSU, and when you pair that talent influx with a quarterback as good as Garrett Nussmeier, you get a team that shouldn’t just be a playoff contender, but a national championship contender, if it can survive a tough schedule.
9. Miami
Miami replaced Cam Ward as well as it could have hoped by uprooting Carson Beck from Georgia. He should enjoy passing to better wide receivers than he had around him last year. Miami must avoid flopping in winnable games. The Hurricanes have only three ranked opponents on the schedule. Two of those are home games. Miami’s transfer haul was the best in the ACC, and not facing Clemson in the regular season is an advantage.
10. Baylor
Here, we have our first sleeper in the playoff projections. Unranked Baylor can make a statement in its opener Friday against Auburn. Even if that goes south, there’s opportunity within the Big 12. Its toughest conference games against Arizona State and Kansas State are at home. Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson is one of the Big 12’s best. He led Baylor to six consecutive conference wins at the end of last season.
11. Boise State
At least one Group of Five team must be included in the playoff bracket. There’s no safer choice than Boise State. The Broncos will miss star running back Ashton Jeanty, but a bundle of starters return, including quarterback Maddux Madsen. A dependable offensive line remains Boise State’s trump card. Mountain West rival UNLV must travel to play on the blue turf, a schedule advantage.
12. Nebraska
My boldest playoff choice will hinge of quarterback Dylan Raiola improving in his second season starting for Nebraska. Check out coach Matt Rhule’s track record in Year 3. It’s darn good. Nebraska will host Michigan in a pivotal September game and play at Penn State. Those are its only ranked opponents. Few Big Ten teams fared better in the portal sweepstakes than Nebraska. Looking for the next Indiana? Consider Nebraska.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.