The NCAA men’s basketball tournament’s main event is at hand, and a strong case could be made that any of the four teams left standing could wind up cutting down the nets in San Antonio Monday night.
First and foremost, of course, they’re all No. 1 seeds as bracket followers well know. The accomplished foursome has a cumulative record of 135-16. Three of the four won their conference tournaments, and the fourth won a the regular-title of the best league and a prestigious holiday tournament.
But only one of them can emerge victorious after the weekend, so here’s how we think the Final Four teams rank in terms of their chances of securing the title.
No. 1 Duke
Regular readers will undoubtedly recall that we had Florida in the top spot a week ago in our Sweet 16 reseed. But it’s become increasingly undeniable that the Blue Devils are the most complete team in the field. They have enough options on the offensive end to compensate when mainstay Cooper Flagg has a relative off day, as he did against Alabama. But it’s been their well-executed team defense with big men Khaman Maluach and Patrick Ngongba as rim protectors that has enabled them to win all their games in the tournament thus far with little to no drama. Jon Scheyer has put together the right blend of youth and veterans to create a team that will be difficult to beat.
No. 2 Florida
With that said, however, the Gators are still the best team from the deepest conference, and their knack for finding ways to win tight contests can’t be overlooked. Walter Clayton Jr. has demonstrated takeover ability against both Connecticut and Texas Tech when the Gators seemed to be wobbling. But he’ll almost certainly need help as the level of competition amps up even more. A performance like Thomas Haugh’s 20 points off the bench against Texas Tech was encouraging. There are several others capable of shouldering the load, and a deep frontcourt should be capable of slowing Auburn in the semifinal.
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No. 3 Houston
We might very well have the Cougars too low here. They have already had to overcome a pair of programs with recent national championship game appearances just to reach this point, and their defensive domination in the Elite Eight round against Tennessee was every bit as impressive as Duke’s against Alabama. Houston might not have the singular star like the other three semifinalists possess, but that could make the Cougars even more dangerous as the big shot could come from any of several candidates. Even so, Houston is still trying to get out of the dreaded ‘never won the title’ club, so from that standpoint there remains a ‘prove it’ factor for this team.
No. 4 Auburn
It might seem odd to have the team that spent so much of the season ranked first in the coaches poll at the bottom of this list. But there are a couple of reasons. First, the Tigers, unlike the other three participants, did not win their league tournament. That is not always a good predictor of March success extending into April, of course, but Auburn was clearly playing its best basketball earlier in the campaign. Furthermore, Auburn has played all the other Final Four squads and only managed to beat one of them. Yes, star big man Johni Broome is fine after an injury scare in the Michigan State win, and the Tigers do know how to manage a quick turnaround situation as they did in Maui back in November. But they need to rediscover that cohesiveness to bring home the program’s first championship.