It’s pretty easy to spot the serious contenders and the highly likely basement dwellers in Major League Baseball. Yet for a handful teams, it’s hard to say whether hope springs eternal – or infernal.
More volatile than a day trader, October could bring them a surprise playoff appearance or the grim realization they took a significant step back this season. And their performances will be notable, given that they may complicate the paths of the bluer bloods across the majors – or end up as so much roadkill.
With that, USA TODAY Sports breaks down four of the most volatile teams for 2025:
Houston Astros: Retreating or reloading?
The trendline was already unsettling enough – from 106-win World Series champions to 90-win ALCS losers to 88-win two-and-outs in 2024. And then the Astros moved on from third baseman Alex Bregman and traded Silver Slugger outfielder Kyle Tucker.
Not exactly the formula to reverse two years of slippage.
But the Astros have the wherewithal to win a ninth consecutive full-season AL West title. It’s just that their confidence involves a little more projection than expectation.
For all their superstar position players over the years, pitching has always been the Astros’ bedrock. And they’ll enjoy one more season of lefty Framber Valdez, who has received Cy Young Award votes the past three seasons. No-hit wonder Ronel Blanco, who ended up eating 167 innings with a 2.80 ERA, and Hunter Brown (170 IP, 3.49 ERA) buttress that foundation.
The intriguing question is whether right-hander Spencer Arrighetti can continue the 15-start run that closed his 2024 season, when he posted a 3.40 ERA and 3.78 FIP. No pitcher on the staff has more upside.
As for the offense? Cam Smith, the centerpiece of the Tucker trade, had a dominant spring and floored the Astros with both his power and veteran mien. Yordan Alvarez remains arguably the greatest hitter on earth. Isaac Paredes may not replicate Bregman, but, as he joins his fourth team in five years, should benefit from now-Daikin Park’s configuration.
Win range: 82 to 91
Washington Nationals: Youth wasted on the young?
Throw out veteran sluggers Josh Bell and Nathaniel Lowe and stopgap third baseman Paul DeJong, and the Nationals’ starting lineup features dudes ages 22, 23, 24, 24, 25 and 26.
Let’s exclude veteran starter Trevor Williams for the moment and consider that the four other fellows in Washington’s rotation are 25, 26, 27 and 28.
Given that the major leagues are increasingly a young man’s game, this bodes particularly well for the Nats, yes?
Probably.
A meticulous rebuilding project has yielded significant results. And 2025 will prove to be a pivotal year for the process.
That starts in the outfield corners, where James Wood (22) and Dylan Crews (23) debuted in 2024. Wood’s 6-foot-6 frame produces stunning exit velocity once his long levers extend, with a 92.8 mph average and a 111.6 mph peak. He produced a .781 OPS in 336 plate appearances.
Crews, the No. 2 overall pick in 2023, wasn’t quite the instant smash, with a .218/.288/.353 line in 31 games. But his five-tool ability and defensive acumen create enough value already, and the Nationals expect greater plate discipline and a significant improvement on his 8.3% walk rate from his rookie cameo.
Along with Jacob Young, who should have won a Gold Glove, they form a possibly unmatched defensive outfield.
Meanwhile, the rotation surprised in its ability to gobble innings. Jake Irvin ranked fifth in the NL in innings pitched in his first full year as a starter, while MacKenzie Gore posted a 3.90 ERA over 166 innings. If Gore can clean up his peripherals and pitch efficiency, an ace may be in the making.
Trouble is, it will be rough sledding in the NL East, which produced three playoff teams last season. Thirty-nine games against the Braves, Phillies and Mets vs. 13 against the Marlins is a tough baseline from which to launch for a team that won 71 games the past two seasons.
Especially when development often isn’t linear. So, paint these Nats as legit spoilers, or still a year or two away.
Win range: 71 to 80
San Francisco Giants: Can JV help them join the NL’s varsity?
In the past three seasons, Justin Verlander has won a Cy Young Award, signed with the New York Mets for $43 million a year, got traded and produced the worst ERA – 5.48 – of his career.
So who’s to say what the future Hall of Famer might do at the age of 42?
Verlander epitomizes the Choose Your Own Adventure vibe of these Giants. He’ll pair with Logan Webb and fellow former Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to give them a veteran foundation atop the rotation.
He looked great this spring, one year after a neck injury and other maladies limited him to 17 starts. Equally curious is how well Jordan Hicks fares in his second year returning to the rotation, and the ability of young arms Hayden Birdsong and Landen Roupp to shore up the back end.
A year ago, the Giants were 17-20 and treading water in the NL West when center fielder Jung Hoo Lee suffered a season-ending torn labrum in his left shoulder. They finished 80-82, with Lee’s absence leaving plenty of what-ifs regarding their record and Lee’s further assimilation to the big leagues.
This year, he’s in the middle of a potentially potent 2-3-4 in the lineup with $182 million free agent Willy Adames and now-cornerstone Matt Chapman. Yet several question marks – if not holes – remain in a lineup that ranked 19th and 17th in OPS and runs.
Since winning 107 games in 2021, the Giants won 81, 79 and 80 the next three seasons. A fourth, similar output seems likely – but enough upside and risk exist for any scenario to seem possible.
Win range: 77 to 87
Toronto Blue Jays: Bye bye, birdies?
Take two franchise cornerstones entering their final years before free agency. Mix in a 40-year-old future Hall of Famer capable of dominating opposing batters so long as his thumb doesn’t hurt like hell.
Throw in a dash of promising but utterly unproven young players competing in the game’s toughest division and you have a fascinating and thoroughly befuddling Blue Jays squad.
They’re still confident they have a shot at retaining Vladimir Guerrero Jr. despite missing a soft deadline to extend him. They hope Bo Bichette bounces back from a .225/.277/.322 injury-plagued season to create a prosperous salary drive for himself.
And it looks like Max Scherzer, signed to a one-year deal, will break in the rotation after a nagging thumb condition dogged him this spring.
Beyond that, things can go in so many different directions.
Such as Alan Roden, who opened eyes and then cemented a roster spot with a nifty spring performance that leaves him in position to get significant at-bats in left field. Will Wagner, Nathan Lukes, Davis Schneider – they’ll all get a chunk of time at some point, and only Schneider has more than a year of service time.
Is it a bad sign Kevin Gausman’s strikeouts per nine innings shrank from an AL-leading 11.5 to 8.1? Can Chris Bassitt, 36, reverse a career-worst 4.16 ERA? Is Bowden Francis really that guy who was virtually unhittable his final five starts of the year?
And how does all this stack up against the Yankees, the Orioles, the revived Red Sox, the ever-present Rays?
Win range: 78 to 88.
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