March Madness is defined by its unpredictability and ability to produce magical moments. We’ve seen a No. 16 seed beat a No. 1 seed twice. We’ve double-digit seeds reach the Final Four. We’ve seen buzzer-beaters end careers. It’s tough to predict what unlikely outcomes we will be treated to during the next three weeks.
With that in mind, it’s time offer some hot takes for the Big Dance. For some, there’s some historical evidence to bolster these forecasts. Will all of these predictions come true? Not likely. But the one great thing about the NCAA Tournament is its about the unexpected.
1. North Carolina wins multiple games
There are plenty of opinions on whether North Carolina should be in the field or not, but what can’t be denied is the Tar Heels certainly can put up fights against great teams. Yes they were 1-12 in Quad 1 games, but six of those losses were by single-digits, and four were by three points or less. North Carolina showed it could compete.
The Tar Heels make a major statement against San Diego State in the First Four and then don’t stop there in their next matchup with Mississippi. Will North Carolina advance further? Likely not, but the Tar Heels will have some success that silence the doubters.
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2. Kansas, Connecticut are one and done in NCAA Tournament
Two of the biggest programs in the sports will have early exits with Kansas and Connecticut losing in the first round. The Jayhawks have won at least one game in their last 17 tournament appearances. They enter as a No. 7 seed – their worst since the streak began – against Arkansas. And momentum is not in their favor. Kansas have five losses in their nine games. Look for a disappointing finish against the Razorbacks.
The Huskies are back-to-back defending national champions and winners of 12 consecutive tournament games. But those runs come to an end with the Huskies facing Oklahoma in the opening round. With UConn, you don’t know whether an elite team or a mistake-prone squad will show up. The Sooners had late push to get themselves in the field, and Jeremiah Fears continues his fantastic play to end any three-peat discussion.
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3. Half of SEC crop lose in first round
A record amount of 14 SEC teams made the field and they showed their strength against non-conference foes. But the success doesn’t carry over into March with no more than seven teams will be standing by Saturday.
Top seeds like Auburn, Florida, Alabama and Tennessee should be fine, but its the rest in the middle that will struggle. There are some juicy upsets possibly with Texas A&M, Mississippi and Missouri, plus ones like challenges for Georgia, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. There’s no doubt the SEC will likely have the most teams left by the second round, but it surely won’t be able to say it was as strong as it thinks it is.
4. Gonzaga’s Sweet 16 streak ends
For the past nine tournaments, no matter the seed, Mark Few has found a way to make the second weekend of the tournament, a testament to the consistent success of the Bulldogs. But this year, the streak finally comes to an end.
There were high expectations for Gonzaga this season, however it struggled against high-caliber teams. The Bulldogs will be a No. 8 seed and face Georgia, which really caught fire at the end of the year. If Gonzaga can get past the first round, likely waiting will be No. 1 seed Houston. The Cougars play elite defense that can limit Gonzaga’s high-scoring offense, and for the first time in a decade, the Zags head home early.
5. Rick Pitino and John Calipari get into a heated spat
It’s the second-round matchup everyone wants. St. John’s and Arkansas means Rick Pitino vs. John Calipari. There’s some history between the two coaches, and while they have seemed amicable in recent years, the gloves come off in March Madness. It will be an intense matchup between the Razorbacks and Red Storm with two coaches getting into a verbal argument during the game or someone calls out the other in the postgame press conference. Wherever and whenever it happens, it will make for some great television.
6. Chaos in the South region
If you’re looking for a region that just goes off the rails, look no further than the South Region. There are plenty of upset candidates residing in that part of the bracket with teams like UC San Diego, Yale, New Mexico and the San Diego State-North Carolina winner all very capable of going on runs. With so many possible Cinderella options, the South region gets turned upside down with at least three teams seeded nine or lower in the Sweet 16.
7. The star of the NCAA Tournament? Brigham Young’s Richie Saunders
Every year there’s a player that becomes a household name among hoops fans. This time it will be BYU star Richie Saunders. The Cougars enter the tournament as one of the country’s hottest teams. During a nine-game win streak, Saunders averaged 18.9 points per game and shot at least 50% from the field in seven of the games. He carries his strong finish into the tournament and leads BYU into a deep run that gets it close to the Final Four.
8. Cinderella run leads to Indiana’s new coach
Whatever team goes on a Cinderella run this year, hope you enjoyed having your head coach. Desperately looking for a coach to bring success back to Bloomington, Indiana jumps at the chance to hire one of the March coaching success stories. The Hoosiers throw a bunch of money at the top candidate to pry them away from the position less than a week after their tournament runs, hoping it can have the same type of run in 2026.
9. Auburn doesn’t win national championship, or even make Final Four
Last year, Connecticut broke a streak of 15 consecutive tournaments where the top overall seed failed to win the national title. This year, Auburn is the top seed by comfortably winning the SEC regular-season title and accumulating 16 Quad 1 wins. The resume certainly looks like a national championship team.
However, Auburn has struggled recently. Teams finally figured out how to attack the Tigers and they lost three of their last four games. Auburn is a great team that looked like the title favorite for much of the season, but things don’t look as good as they did last month. The Tigers survive the first weekend but are unable to advance to the Final Four.
10. No SEC national champion
In case you haven’t heard, the SEC was by far the top of college basketball. Not only was it strong from top to bottom, but it boasted some of the best national championship contenders in the country. It has seemed inevitable the national champion would hail from the Southeast.
Except it won’t happen. After hearing all year about how great it is, the SEC is only able to get one − maybe two − teams in the Final Four, and neither are able to have their one shining moment. SEC fans will try to spin it as it wasn’t able to win the title because it got fatigued from playing in such a deep conference, but it won’t take away from the fact the league did not finish on top as many people predicted. This year’s champion just won’t mean more.