The popularity and success of March Madness is owed in part to the years-long reality that figuring out who’s in and who’s out of the NCAA tournament each season is as much a part of the fun as watching the games unfold to determine college basketball’s national champion. This has led to a new truism over the past decade: It’s never too early for bracketology.
What was once an exercise conducted in the days leading into Selection Sunday eventually turned into a conference play constant, with the bubble, last four in and first four out joining the sport’s vocabulary. Today, bracketology is a year-round endeavor for the likes of ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, with multiple updates during each week of the season.
There are about two months until Selection Sunday for the 2025 NCAA tournament, and the competition for a spot in the bracket and the highest seed possible is heating up now that conference play has arrived throughout the country. Here’s a breakdown of some of the latest national projections for the this year’s March Madness field, including potential No. 1 seeds, teams rising and falling and the current state of the bubble as of Friday, January 17:
March Madness bracketology 2025: Potential No. 1 seeds
Here’s a look at the teams currently projected to be No. 1 seeds in the 2025 NCAA tournament bracket by a variety of national outlets:
ESPN: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Tennessee
CBS Sports: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Tennessee
NCAA.com: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Alabama
FOX Sports: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Tennessee
The Washington Post: Auburn, Duke, Alabama, Tennessee
NCAA tournament 2025: Teams on the rise
Michigan State: Since losing to Memphis in the semifinals of the Maui Invitational, the Spartans have reeled off 10 wins in a row. After debuting at No. 41 in this year’s initial NET rankings, they’ve climbed to No. 17 as of Thursday and remain in position to secure a top-three seed on Selection Sunday.
Arizona: The Wildcats got off to a rocky start thanks to tough non-conference scheduling, losing five of their first nine games. But Arizona is on a seven-game win streak entering Saturday’s Big 12 game at Texas Tech. It has gone from No. 65 to No. 12 in the NET rankings over the past six weeks.
Mississippi: Coach Chris Beard’s team only has losses to ranked teams (Purdue and Memphis) and got four-straight wins to begin SEC play, including this past week’s road win at Alabama. The Rebels could challenge for a top-four seed given how many opportunities the loaded SEC presents this season.
Louisville: The Cardinals are a remarkable turnaround story in coach Pat Kelsey’s first season, putting together an undefeated record in ACC play thus far to rejoin the national conversation. Louisville is now as high as a No. 6 seed in some bracketology updates.
Selection Sunday 2025: Who’s falling in bracketology?
Dayton: The Flyers have non conference wins over UConn, Marquette and Northwestern, but erased much of that goodwill by losing three in a row in Atlantic-10 conference play.
Pittsburgh: The Panthers were one of the few ACC teams to represent themselves well in non conference play, but consecutive losses to Duke, Louisville and Florida State have Pittsburgh inching closer to the bubble.
Indiana: The Hoosiers seemed poised to play their way off the bubble with four-straight wins against Big Ten competition, but blowout losses to Iowa and Illinois mean Indiana’s chances of making the NCAA tournament ‒ and coach Mike Woodson’s job status ‒ appear to be in jeopardy.
Oklahoma: The Sooners won 13 games in a row to start the season and the run included wins over Arizona, Louisville and Michigan. But they’ve come back down to earth swiftly after losing four games in a row to start SEC play.
Who’s on the March Madness bubble?
Here’s a look at some of the teams currently considered to be on the bubble by national outlets as conference play heats up with almost two months to go until Selection Sunday:
ESPN
*As of Jan. 17
Last four in: Ohio State, Creighton New Mexico, Texas, Dayton,
Last four byes: Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Saint Mary’s, Nebraska, Missouri
First four out: Vanderbilt, Iowa, Cincinnati, UCF
Next four out: Arizona State, Arkansas, SMU, Dayton
CBS Sports
*As of Jan. 17
Last four in: Texas, Wake Forest, New Mexico, Vanderbilt
Last four byes: Iowa, Creighton, UCLA, San Diego State
First four out: SMU, Texas Tech, Northwestern, Arizona State
FOX Sports
*As of Jan. 14
Last four in: Texas Tech, New Mexico, Creighton, Iowa
First four out: Texas, St. Bonaventure, Indiana, Georgetown
Next four out: SMU, Arizona State, Penn State, Cincinnati
The Washington Post
*As of Jan. 13
Last four in: UCF, Arizona State, New Mexico, Saint Mary’s
First four out: Arkansas, Drake, Vanderbilt, Dayton
Next four out: Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern, Penn State
Andy Katz, NCAA.com
*As of Jan. 14
Last four in: Texas Tech, Saint Mary’s, Ohio State, Creighton
Next teams considered: Arizona State, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, SMU, Drake, Arkansas, Texas, Cincinnati, BYU, Villanova, VCU, Dayton
USA Today Coaches Poll
Here’s where teams stand in the latest USA Today Coaches Poll for men’s basketball, released on Jan. 13.
Auburn (16-1)
Iowa State (15-1)
Duke (15-2)
Florida (15-2)
Alabama (14-3)
Tennessee (16-1)
Marquette (15-2)
Houston (13-3)
Kentucky (14-3)
Kansas (12-4)
Texas A&M (13-4)
Michigan State (15-2)
UConn (13-4)
Oregon (15-2)
Purdue (14-4)
Gonzaga (14-5)
Memphis (13-4)
Mississippi State (14-3)
Michigan (13-4)
Illinois (13-4)
Mississippi (15-2)
Utah State (16-2)
Georgia (14-3)
Baylor (11-5)
West Virginia (12-4)
Others receiving votes: St. John’s; Wisconsin; Arizona; New Mexico; Oklahoma; UCLA; Maryland; Texas Tech; Clemson; Saint Mary’s; Louisville; Indiana; San Diego State; Missouri; UC Irvine.
*Records through Jan. 16 games