Every week for the duration of the 2024 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − typically starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable.)
What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 5.
Here’s where things stand with Week 17 of the 2024 season underway:
NFC playoff picture
x – 1. Detroit Lions (13-2), NFC North leaders: Last week, they were in a three-way tie atop the conference and deadlocked for the division lead with Minnesota. But Philadelphia’s Week 16 defeat makes it increasingly likely the Lions and Vikings will be playing for all the important regular-season marbles in Week 18. Winning out gives the Lions everything they want, including home-field advantage. So would a win at San Francisco on Monday night combined with a Minnesota loss to Green Bay. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Vikings
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x – 2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3), NFC East leaders: In Week 16, they lost their 10-game winning streak, an opportunity to wrap up the division and fell a game behind Detroit and Minnesota in the race for home-field advantage. Also, concussed QB Jalen Hurts won’t play this Sunday. But the Eagles are still just one win or Commanders loss from locking up the division and at least the No. 2 seed. Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants
3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6), NFC West leaders: Saturday night’s escape from Arizona could mean a division title if the strength-of-victory tiebreaker unfolds LA’s way Sunday. ‘Honestly, I have no idea,’ WR Puka Nacua said of the clinching scenario when asked on NFL Network after the triumph. ‘They said we had a game at SoFi Stadium Saturday night, so that’s what I showed up for.’ Barring that, there’s a Week 18 meeting against Seattle that could still decide matters. Neither the Rams nor Seahawks have a pathway to a wild-card berth. Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7), NFC South leaders: Rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. won his starting debut against the lowly Giants. But the real payoff came when the Bucs – they were swept earlier in the season by Atlanta – lost at Dallas in Week 16. The Falcons can win the division this Sunday with another victory and another Tampa Bay loss. Remaining schedule: at Commanders, vs. Panthers
x – 5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2), wild card No. 1: Like Detroit, they control their own potentially high-yield fate – win out, and the NFC North and No. 1 seed are Minnesota’s. Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, at Lions
x – 6. Green Bay Packers (11-4), wild card No. 2: Getting swept by Detroit and losing once already to Minnesota relegated the Pack to wild-card status … though Monday’s whitewash of the Saints was the latest reminder that this might actually be the last NFC North team you want to see in January. But given Packers are guaranteed to open the playoffs on the road, it will be interesting to see how much they play their key starters over the next two weeks given the limited upside to doing so. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, vs. Bears
7. Washington Commanders (10-5), wild card No. 3: Despite beating the Eagles, they didn’t quite clinch a postseason berth in Week 16 – but did remain alive in the NFC East. A win in Week 17 puts Washington into the dance. A loss could be highly problematic in the tiebreaker space as it would open an alternate avenue for the Bucs, who beat Washington in Week 1. Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons, at Cowboys
8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7), in the hunt: If they and the Rams wind up 10-7, which would require a Seahawks win at LA in Week 18, the undetermined strength-of-victory tiebreaker will prove pivotal, likely in LA’s favor. But that assumes the Seahawks are not eliminated Sunday first after the Rams prevailed over the Cardinals. Remaining schedule: at Rams
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7), in the hunt: The Bucs could see their aspirations to keep the NFC South throne die this weekend. However, if Atlanta beats Washington, then Tampa Bay has a more favorable shot at the NFC’s final wild-card slot. Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers, vs. Saints
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AFC playoff picture
yz – 1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1), AFC West champions: By crushing Pittsburgh on Christmas, they secured home-field advantage and a first-round bye – and really two-plus weeks off in actuality depending on whom they want to play in what’s now a meaningless Week 18 contest for the champs. Remaining schedule: at Broncos, BYE
y – 2. Buffalo Bills (12-3), AFC East champions: Now out of the running for the No. 1 seed, finishing second in the conference should still have meaning given the road to Super Bowl 59 could go through Western New York if the Chiefs lose their playoff opener. A win would also ensure Buffalo wouldn’t have to go on the road for a playoff game unless the AFC championship is staged in Kansas City. Remaining schedule: vs. Jets, at Patriots
x – 3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5), AFC North leaders: Catching fire? Probably an understatement. The Steelers’ loss before Baltimore’s Christmas kickoff vaulted the Ravens atop the division, and their dominant win over Houston keeps them there. A win or tie in Week 18 clinches it. Remaining schedule: vs. Browns
y – 4. Houston Texans (9-7), AFC South champions: They rule a weak division for the second straight year, however Wednesday’s loss locked them into the fourth seed … which will likely mean a tough wild-card matchup, albeit in Houston, against an AFC North team. Remaining schedule: at Titans
x – 5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6), wild card No. 1: That’s three losses in a row, Wednesday’s flat performance against K.C. costing them first place in the AFC North. However they can capture the divisional title by winning in Week 18 if Baltimore also loses to Cleveland. Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals
x – 6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6), wild card No. 2: Saturday’s rout of the Patriots locked Bolts into the field and ensures Jim Harbaugh has been a playoff participant in four of his five NFL seasons as a head coach. Yet, having lost to the Ravens and Steelers earlier this season, the Chargers will most likely be the sixth seed – and probably head to Baltimore or Pittsburgh for a rematch. Remaining schedule: at Raiders
7. Denver Broncos (9-7), wild card No. 3: They’ve had win-and-in scenarios in their past two games and lost both times. Still, one more victory – or tie – will advance Denver to the playoffs for the first time since they won Super Bowl 50 with Peyton Manning and Von Miller nearly nine years ago. The Broncos’ Week 18 game against Kansas City means basically nothing to the Chiefs – which could be a real advantage for Denver, which can do no better than the seventh seed. Remaining schedule: vs. Chiefs
8. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), in the hunt: Still alive thanks to a four-game winning streak, including Saturday’s overtime thriller against Denver. Though they appear like the best team outside the postseason field, the Bengals still need the most help to get in, including at least one loss by both the Colts and Dolphins. Cincinnati must also beat Pittsburgh in Week 18 and hope Denver loses again. Though the Bengals jumped Indy and Miami on Saturday, both hold tiebreakers that would move them past Cincinnati if they continue winning. Remaining schedule: at Steelers
9. Indianapolis Colts (7-8), in the hunt: Technically alive after winning in Week 16 and with a soft schedule on the way out. Their record in AFC games (6-5) is better than Miami’s (5-5) and Cincinnati’s (5-6). Indianapolis clinches if it winds up in a three- or four-way tie with teams all possessing 9-8 records. A two-way tie with Denver would mean the Broncos advance due to their Week 15 win over the Colts. Remaining schedule: at Giants, vs. Jaguars
10. Miami Dolphins (7-8), in the hunt: Technically alive after winning in Week 16 and with a soft schedule on the way out. They advance if tied with any combination of 9-8 teams that does not include the Colts. Remaining schedule: at Browns, at Jets
NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 17
Detroit clinches NFC North and NFC’s No. 1 seed (first-round bye and home-field advantage) with:
Win + Minnesota loss
Atlanta clinches NFC South with:
Win + Tampa Bay loss
Philadelphia clinches NFC East with:
Win or tie
Washington loss or tie
Los Angeles Rams clinch NFC West with:
Must clinch strength-of-victory tiebreaker over Seattle on Sunday
(Note: Rams secure strength-of-victory tiebreaker with 2½ or more wins from the following teams: Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota, San Francisco and Washington. A tie equates to a half-win in this formula.)
Washington clinches playoff berth with:
Win or tie
Tampa Bay loss or tie
NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 18 (incomplete)
Baltimore clinches AFC North with:
Win or tie
Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with:
Win + Baltimore loss
Denver clinches playoff berth with:
Win or tie
NFL teams eliminated from playoff contention in 2024
x – clinched playoff berth
y – clinched division
z – clinched home-field advantage, first-round bye
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